The advertising investment “sneezes” and is on the edge of the cold for tariffs

Donald Trump’s controversial tariffs could have a perverse effect on advertising investmentcondemned to deflate if the new tariff policy of the president of the United States ends up leading to an economic recession beyond the seas (as many economists are afraid, in fact, many economists).

If the recession ends up effectively crystallizing as a result of Trump’s tariffs, the consumer would probably put the brake on spending and The brands would also stop advertising investment.

According to a report undertaken by eMarketer, Trump’s tariff. It is 10% less than the initial growth forecasts in this channel. If such projections were fulfilled, advertising investment in social networks in the United States would star in 2025 an interannual growth of just 1.5%, compared to the growth of 12.8% initially anticipated by EMARKETER.

Proof that Emarketer estimates could eventually turn Temu and Shein, two marks severely bathed by Trump’s new tariff policy, have already drastically cut the advertising expense on social networks across the puddle. According to Tower Sensor, Temu’s advertising investment on platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok, Snapchat, X and YouTube collapsed 31% in the period between March 31 and April 13 (compared to the figures of the same period of the previous year). And Shein’s advertising expenditure on platforms 2.0 was also reduced by 19% in the same period of time.

Moffetnathanson analysts estimate that an eventual recession could cause a “bleeding” of 45.00 million dollars in advertising investment Put on the table by advertisers in 2025 and could end up giving the tip to television and other traditional media, reinforcing the bet of brands through streaming video platforms and other digital channels.

The media industry will inevitably suffer if Trump’s tariffs flow into a recession

«If an eventual economic recession came true, the advertising business will inevitably become more complicated. AND It is likely that platforms with the focus on brand advertising are more severely impacted than direct response platforms », warns in statements to Reuters John Belton, manager of Gabelli Funds, a company that manages titles of important companies attached to the media universe such as Paramount Global, Warner Bros. Discovery, Fox and Comcast.

Netflixwhich dominates the video in streaming for years, presented last week its quarterly results corresponding to the first quarter of the year and, with extraordinarily solid figures, He showed that Trump’s tariffs did not make a dent in the least in their business in the period between January and March 2025.

It is possible, however, that if the economic situation becomes more complex in the coming months, the consumer, with less money in his pocket, even more strongly bet on the cheap plan with Netflix ads (which has ended up revealing himself as a very powerful magnet attracting subscribers for the cats company). The robust Netflix position in the streaming industry will not be staggered almost certainly the company’s business in the face of an eventual recession, but other “players” such as Apple TV+ or Peacok could not run the same fate.

If the clouds caused by an eventual recession end up settling on the horizon, Advertisers could further cut the consecrated budgets to television in a lifetime and this could have a potentially lethal effect on companies such as Warner Bros. Discoverythat in 2024 he obtained more than a fifth of his income leaning on advertising.

Growth of growth in advertising investment could also affect Meta, Alphabet and Snapalthough not all channels will be impacted equally to an eventual recession. Search engine advertising works, for example, particularly well in periods of economic uncertainty, so Google’s advertising business would not suffer too much if the dreaded recession was chopped in a reality.

They will probably suffer more Facebook and Tiktokwhich have so far channeled a good part of the advertising investment of the Chinese giants of the E-Commerce Temu and Shein.

The Disney entertainment giant must also be more pressure, which could be confronted not only with downward advertising but also with the weakening of its prosperous theme parks division. If there were a recession, Disney could see the income derived from its thematic parks division diminished by 3,000 million dollars, according to Moffettnathanson.

The recession could also deflate the revenues harvested by the large film studieswhich would be confronted with less ticket sales in film rooms and would also be affected by the restrictions for the distribution of their films in markets such as China (direct consequence of the fierce commercial war unleashed by Trump).